Impact of the 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic on aviation

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A nearly empty flight from Beijing to Los Angeles in March 2020

The 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic has had a significant impact on aviation industry due to the resulting travel restrictions as well as slump in demand among travelers. Significant reductions in passenger numbers has resulted in planes flying empty between airports and the cancellation of flights.

As passenger flights were canceled, the cost of sending cargo by air changed rapidly. The cost of sending cargo across the Pacific Ocean tripled by late March.^[1]

By sector

On 5 March 2020, the International Air Transport Association estimated that the airline industry could lose between US$63 to 113 billion of revenues due to the reduced number of passengers.^[2][3] IATA had previously estimated revenue losses of around US$30 billion two weeks before their 5 March estimate.^[4] By 17 March, IATA had stated that its 5 March estimate was "outdated", and that airlines would require $200 billion in bailouts to survive the crisis.^[5] IATA further revised their revenue loss estimate in 24 March to be $252 billion globally, a 44 percent drop.^[6]

Oliver Wyman reported that Asian airlines reduced their available seat miles by 23 percent in March 2020.^[7] In Europe, the impact of the outbreak is expected to accelerate corporate consolidation in the airline industry.^[8] According to consultancy CAPA Centre for Aviation, most airlines would be bankrupted by the end of May 2020.^[9]

Air travel demand rose 2.4 percent year-on-year in January 2020, the lowest it has been since the April 2010 eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull, though travel disruptions due to coronavirus only began in late January.^[10] Despite a lack of passengers, regulations regarding flight slots initially compelled British airlines to fly empty planes to European airports in order to avoid losing their slots.^[11] Fuel prices dropping (due to an oil price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia) by around a quarter could not compensate for the fall in demand.^[12] Google Trends indicate that airline customer service departments have received the largest rise in online searches between February and March 2020 than any other customer service department over that time period.^[13]

Airlines

No passengers to be seen in an international departures area at Beijing Capital International Airport

• Air Canada announced a temporary layoff of 5,100 employees, suspending most of its international flights.^[6]
• Air France–KLM chairman Benjamin Smith stated in a video recording to staff that the situation was "unprecedented". The Financial Times reported that the French government was exploring ways to provide the airline with cash.^[14] Air France-KLM later announced it would reduce capacity by 70-90%. ^[15]

• Air New Zealand cut its long-haul capacity by 85%, and suspended several long-haul routes. Domestic route capacity was reduced by 30%, and the company placed itself into a trading halt.^[16]
• The sale process of Italy's flag carrier Alitalia was accelerated, with the Italian government cutting the deadline for interested investors to submit offers from 31 May to 18 March.^[17] Between the weeks of 2 and 9 March – when the Italian government announced a national lockdown – Alitalia's capacity in international flights fell by 22 percent.^[18]
• American Airlines in March 2020 reduced international flights by 10 percent (55 percent for Trans-Pacific routes) and domestic flights by 7.5 percent.^[10] American plans to cut its domestic flight schedule by 60%–70% in April 2020 and 80%–90% in May, with only a "handful" of international routes to stay in operation.^[19] On 1 April, American announced that it would apply for US $12 billion in government aid; industry analysts estimate that the airline will run out of cash in two months without the aid package.^[20]
• British Airways CEO Álex Cruz informed staff that BA was facing a crisis worse than the aftermath of the SARS outbreak or the 9/11 attacks, and wrote that "jobs would be lost – perhaps for a short term, perhaps longer term."^[21]
• Cathay Pacific cancelled three-fourths of its flights in March 2020, compared to initial expectations of 40 percent.^[22] The airline canceled 96% of passenger flights in April and May, but continued flying some passenger planes empty in order to transport cargo.^[1]

An employee disinfecting a Delta Boeing 757.

• Delta Air Lines announced in March 2020 that it would reduce international flights by 20–25% and domestic flights by 10–15%. It also froze further hiring and suspended share buybacks.^[10] The airline in March reported a 25 percent drop in bookings, and CEO Ed Bastian remarked that the hit to passenger demand was similar to the impact of the 9/11 attacks on air travel.^[23] As of 31 March, Delta was suspending about 70% of its flights across its network.^[24]
• On 23 March, Emirates announced it will stop all passenger flights, starting 25 March 2020.
• Ethiopian Airlines reported a 30% reduction in passenger traffic and a loss of $190 million in the months of February and March 2020.^[25]On 29 March, the airlines suspended flights to more than 80 countries.^[26][27]
• In March 2020^[update], Finnair announced starting negotiations about short-term layoffs for all of its employees.^[28] By 10 March, 3,800 of its flights were cancelled in 2020 and Finnair announced it would decrease flights to European destinations by 20%.^[29] By 16 March, Finnair followed with an announcement to reduce its flight capacity by 90% starting from 1 April^[update].^[30]
• British airline Flybe, already struggling financially prior to the virus outbreak, entered administration on 5 March 2020 due to the effects of coronavirus.^[4]
• The International Airlines Group (including British Airways, Iberia and Aer Lingus) announced a 75 percent reduction in passenger capacity for two months in mid-March 2020. CEO Willie Walsh remarked that "there was no guarantee that many European airlines would survive".^[31]
• JetBlue is cutting its capacity by 5% and states the drop in demand is worse than after the 11 September attacks.^[32]
• Korean Air grounded four-fifths of its international capacity.^[2]
• Lufthansa grounded its Airbus A380 aircraft, and cut 90% of its long haul travel capacity. It also stated it would only operate 20% of its intra-Europe flights. ^[33]
• Nepal Airlines the flag carrier of Nepal canceled all domestic and international flights by 20 March. The airline's international travel restriction was implemented prior to domestic restriction. The government indicated that the foreign airlines can conduct evacuation flights at any time despite air travel restrictions.
• Norwegian Air cancelled 85% of its flights and temporarily laid off 90% of its employees.^[34]
• Philippine Airlines cancelled 69 weekly flights to China and 17 weekly flights to South Korea, while exploring new routes to Australia, Malaysia and Indonesia to replace lost revenues.^[22]
• Qantas reduced capacity on its international routes by around 25 percent and grounded eight of its ten Airbus A380 aircraft.^[3]
• Ryanair sent an internal memo informing staff that it may require them to take unpaid leave due to alterations in flight scheduling.^[21]
• Singapore Airlines had to cut 96% of its flights up to end-April and ground the majority of its air fleet on 23 March 2020. Its management also took a pay cut and staff up to certain management levels had to take unpaid leave.^[35] Shares also dropped to its lowest since 1998 to the extent that they had to halt trading.^[36] In response, the Singapore government injected up to S$19 billion for the flag carrier whereas its majority shareholder, Temasek Holdings, said it would underwrite the sale of shares and convertible bonds for up to S$15 billion.^[37]
• Southwest Airlines suspended approximately 40% of its flights and stored 50 Boeing 737-700 aircraft; CEO Gary C. Kelly stated that more aircraft may yet be grounded, but denied that the airline was planning to furlough pilots or declare bankruptcy.^[38] Despite its extensive continental U.S. flight cuts, Southwest plans to reinstate some suspended flights to international destinations and Hawaii in May 2020.^[24] On 2 April, Kelly confirmed that Southwest would apply for federal stimulus grants.^[39]
• Spirit Airlines was to cut fares by up to 70% and reduce April 2020 capacity by around 5%.^[40]
• Turkish Airlines temporarily suspended all international flights starting from March 27, 2020, 23:59 (UTC+3). No domestic flights will be operated on 29 March 2020. As of March 30, 2020, domestic flights to Adana, Ankara, Antalya, Diyarbakır, Erzurum, Gaziantep, Istanbul, Izmir, Kayseri, Konya, Malatya, Samsun, Trabzon and Van will be operated on a limited basis. All other domestic flights are suspended temporarily. As of March 29, 2020, 06:00 (UTC +3), all passengers on domestic flights are required to submit an official Travel Permit Document obtained from the Travel Permit Council. Passengers without an official Travel Permit Document will not be allowed to board the aircraft. Please note that you may find Application Centers of Travel Permit Council at the airports.^[41]
• United Airlines announced that it would reduce domestic flight capacity by 10% and international flight capacity by 20% in April 2020. It also secured US$2 billion in loans to secure its cash reserves.^[10] United later stated on 15 March 2020 that it would cut 50% of its flying capacity for April and May 2020.^[42]
• WestJet reduced 6,900 out of its 14,000 employees (including early retirement, temporary and permanent layoffs, leaves, and resignations) and grounded at least 120 planes. All international flights were cancelled for a month.^[6]

Aircraft manufacturers

• Airbus reduced its wing production on factories in Broughton, Filton and Bremen, and reduced working hours in the sites. Its French and Spanish sites suspended production for several days before a partial resumption on 23 March.^[43]
• Boeing froze hiring and reportedly laid off employees due to a large number of cancellations, which outpaced new orders in February 2020.^[44] On 11 March, it was revealed that Boeing was to exercise its whole US$13.8 billion loan facility (which it secured in February). Prior to the pandemic, Boeing's business had been impacted by groundings of its 737 MAX aircraft.^[45]
• Bombardier on 26 March 2020 announced a suspension of most Canadian production in Ontario (for 2 weeks) and Quebec (until 13 April), in addition to halting production in Northern Ireland. 12,400 Bombardier employees in Canada (70 percent of the workforce) were furloughed.^[46]
• Embraer reported deferment of orders of its commercial aircraft.^[47] It also suspended its financial guidance for 2020.^[48]

By country

•  China: Roughly two-thirds of international flights to and from China were cancelled in February 2020. Flights between Japan and China saw a 60 percent reduction in traffic, while the US and China saw a reduction of 86 percent.^[49] Two-thirds of domestic flights within China were similarly cancelled, numbering around 10,000 flights daily, while the ticket prices for remaining flights dropped – South China Morning Post reported that a seat for a three-hour flight between Shanghai and Chongqing costed as little as 29 Yuan (US$4.1). Passenger traffic between 25 January and 14 February dropped by 75 percent compared to the same period in 2019.^[50] Since 23 March 2020, all international passenger flights bound for Beijing are diverted to twelve designated first points of entry, under the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC)'s guideline.^[51] Since 29 March, all international flights to and from China are reduced, with flight limit.^[52]
•  Italy: Due to the outbreak and the ensuing national lockdown, thousands of flights to and from Italy were cancelled.^[53]
•    Nepal: From March 2020 in order to prevent the importation and spread of coronavirus infection, all aircraft including domestic and international were banned arriving in Nepal.
•  Turkmenistan: From March 2020 in order to prevent the importation and spread of coronavirus infection, all aircraft arriving in Turkmenistan from abroad are redirected to the Turkmenabat International Airport.^[54] Passengers arriving from outside of Turkmenistan are carried screened for signs of active infection, in particular, body temperature is measured. Visitors who are flagged during screening are transported to an allocated hospital. The airport medical center is equipped with personal protective equipment. After passing a medical examination, the plane, together with passengers on board, leaves for Ashgabat. Departures from Turkmenistan are carried out from Ashgabat International Airport. Persons authorized solely for diplomatic, official, humanitarian purposes are allowed to enter the territory of Turkmenistan.^[55]
•  United States: Multiple airlines waived fees for flight booking changes and cancellations during the coronavirus outbreak following a request from Sen. Richard Blumenthal.^[56] Between 20 January and 7 March 2020, stock prices in US airlines decreased by 30 percent.^[57] Flight fares for domestic flights also dropped.^[58]

On 25 March, the United States Senate passed a bill that would allocate $58 billion in loans and guarantees to aviation-related companies, including $25 billion for passenger carriers and $4 billion for cargo carriers, plus $17 billion for companies "critical to maintaining national security", such as Boeing. The airlines accepting the package would be barred from increasing executive pay, issuing dividends, or buying back shares during the aid period.^[59]

•  Hong Kong: Arrivals in February 2020 fell by more than 96 percent compared to February 2019.^[60]
•  Philippines: The National Economic and Development Authority projects a loss of at least 1.2 million tourist arrivals assuming that the pandemic persists by June 2020.^[61]
•  Thailand: Arrivals in February 2020 fell by 44.3 percent.^[62]
•  Sri Lanka: Arrivals in February 2020 fell by 17.7 percent.^[63]
•  Japan: Arrivals in February 2020 fell by 58.3 percent.^[64]

Hazard controls

According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, if a person becomes sick on an airplane, proper hazard controls to protect workers and other passengers include separating the sick person from others by a distance of 6 feet, designating one crew member to serve the sick person, and offering a face mask to the sick person or asking the sick person to cover their mouth and nose with tissues when coughing or sneezing. Cabin crew should wear disposable medical gloves when tending to a sick traveler or touching body fluids or potentially contaminated surfaces, and possibly additional personal protective equipment if the sick traveler has fever, persistent cough, or difficulty breathing. Gloves and other disposable items should be disposed of in a biohazard bag, and contaminated surfaces should be cleaned and disinfected afterwards.^[65]

See also

• List of major events affected by the 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic
• Impact of the 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic on education
• Impact of the 2019-20 coronavirus pandemic on religion
• Impact of the 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic on sports
• Impact of the 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic on science and technology
• Impact of the 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic on cinema
• Impact of the 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic on television

References