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2020 Arizona Democratic primary

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2020 Arizona Democratic presidential primary

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78 Democratic National Convention delegates (67 pledged, 11 unpledged)
The number of pledged delegates won is determined by the popular vote
  Joe Biden February 2020 crop.jpg Bernie Sanders March 2020 (cropped).jpg
Candidate Joe Biden Bernie Sanders
Home state Delaware Vermont
Delegate count 39 28
Popular vote 268,029 200,456
Percentage 44.05% 32.95%

Arizona Democratic presidential primary election results by county, 2020.svg
Election results by county
  Joe Biden
  Bernie Sanders

The 2020 Arizona Democratic presidential primary,[1] officially the 2020 Arizona Democratic Presidential Preference Election,[2] took place on Tuesday, March 17, 2020, one of three states voting on the same day in the Democratic Party presidential primaries for the 2020 presidential election. The Arizona Presidential Preference Election is a closed election, with the state awarding 78 delegates, of which 67 are pledged delegates allocated on the basis of the results of the primary.

The Associated Press declared Joe Biden the winner of the Arizona primary.[3]

Procedure

Arizona is one of three states which held primaries on March 17, 2020, the others being Florida and Illinois.[4]

Arizona mails ballots to voters on the Permanent Early Voting List. Ballots must have been received by 7:00 p.m. on March 17, 2020. In addition, some Arizona counties offered Early Voting Sites[5] or Early Voting Centers [6], where any voter may walk in and vote in person, Monday - Friday, February 19 through March 13, 2020.

Voting took place throughout the state from 6:00 a.m. until 7:00 p.m. In the closed primary, candidates must meet a threshold of 15 percent at the congressional district or statewide level in order to be considered viable. The 67 pledged delegates to the 2020 Democratic National Convention will be allocated proportionally on the basis of the results of the primary. Of the 67 pledged delegates, between three and six are allocated to each of the state's nine congressional districts and another nine are allocated to party leaders and elected officials (PLEO delegates), in addition to 14 at-large pledged delegates. These delegate totals do not account for pledged delegate bonuses or penalties from timing or clustering.[7]

Following the primary, district caucuses will be held on Saturday, April 18, 2020, to designate national convention district delegates, and the state convention and state committee meeting will subsequently be held in Phoenix on Saturday, May 16, 2020 to vote on the 14 pledged at-large and nine PLEO delegates to send to the Democratic National Convention. The 67 pledged delegates Arizona sends to the national convention will be joined by 11 unpledged PLEO delegates (five members of the Democratic National Committee and six members of Congress, including one Senator and five U.S. Representatives).[7]

Polling

Polling aggregation
Source of poll aggregation Date updated Dates polled Joe
Biden
Bernie
Sanders
Tulsi
Gabbard
Other/
Undecided[a]
270 to Win Mar 17, 2020 Mar 3–16, 2020 50.6% 29.4% 1.0% 19.0%
RealClear Politics Mar 17, 2020 Mar 6–15, 2020 51.7% 33.7% 1.0% 13.6%
FiveThirtyEight Mar 17, 2020 until Mar 16, 2020[b] 51.6% 26.9% 1.1% 20.4%
Average 51.3% 30.0% 1.0% 17.7%
Tabulation of individual polls of the 2020 Arizona Democratic primary
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Michael
Bloomberg
Pete
Buttigieg
Kamala
Harris
Bernie
Sanders
Elizabeth
Warren
Andrew
Yang
Other Undecided
Swayable Mar 16, 2020 1,167 (LV) ± 5.0% 53% 29% 19%[d]
Marist/NBC News Mar 10–15, 2020 523 (LV) ± 6.0% 53% 36% 8%[e] 3%
913 (RV) ± 4.5% 50% 37% 9%[f] 5%
Monmouth University Mar 11–14, 2020 373 (LV) ± 5.1% 51% 5% 3% 31% 3% 2%[g] 5%
Latino Decisions/Univision/
Arizona State University
Mar 6–11, 2020 541 (LV) ± 4.2% 57%[h] 38%[h] 5%[h]
51% 34% 6%[i] 8%
March 4–5, 2020 Bloomberg and Warren withdraw from the race
OH Predictive Insights Mar 3–4, 2020 398 (LV) ± 4.91% 45% 12% 17% 13% 4%[j] 9%
March 1–2, 2020 Buttigieg and Klobuchar withdraw from the race
February 11, 2020 New Hampshire primary; Yang withdraws from the race after close of polls
Dec 3, 2019 Harris withdraws from the race
OH Predictive Insights Oct 31 – Nov 8, 2019 260 (LV) ± 6.08% 29% 9% 5% 16% 18% 4% 19%[k]
Emerson Polling Oct 25–28, 2019 339 ± 5.2% 28% 12% 4% 21% 21% 5% 7%[l]
Siena Research/New York Times Oct 13–26, 2019 209 24% 5% 3% 16% 15% 1% 1%[m] 31%
Change Research Sep 27–28, 2019 396 (LV) 15% 13% 4% 19% 35% 8% 7%[n]
Bendixen&Amandi Sep 9–12, 2019 250 ± 4.3% 29% 5% 4% 18% 24% 2% 8%[o] 10%
Zogby Analytics May 23–29, 2019 197 ± 7.0% 35% 6% 4% 16% 10% 0% 11%[p]

Results

2020 Arizona Democratic primary[8]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[9]
Joe Biden 268,029 44.05 39
Bernie Sanders 200,456 32.95 28
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn†) 35,537 5.84 0
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn†) 24,868 4.09 0
Tulsi Gabbard 3,014 0.50 0
Andrew Yang (withdrawn) 1,921 0.32 0
Julian Castro (withdrawn) 754 0.12 0
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) 668 0.10 0
Roque De La Fuente III 628 0.10 0
Deval Patrick (withdrawn) 242 0.04 0
Henry Hewes 208 0.03 0
Michael A. Ellinger 184 0.03 0
Total 536,509[q] 87.92%[r] 67

†Candidate withdrew after early voting started.

Notes

Additional candidates
  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined
  2. ^ FiveThirtyEight aggregates polls with a trendline regression of polls rather than a strict average of recent polls.
  3. ^ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. ^ Gabbard with 1%; "Other" with 18%
  5. ^ Gabbard with 1%; "Other" with 7%
  6. ^ Gabbard with 2%; "Other" with 7%
  7. ^ Gabbard and Klobuchar with 1%; "Other" with <1%
  8. ^ a b c In a two-person race
  9. ^ Gabbard with 1%; "Other" with 5%
  10. ^ "Another Candidate" with 4%
  11. ^ Booker, Castro and Klobuchar with 2%; Bennet, Gabbard, O'Rourke and Steyer with 1%; Delaney with 0%; Bullock and Williamson with no voters; other with 7%
  12. ^ Gabbard, Klobuchar and O'Rourke with 2%; Sestak with 1%; Bennet, Booker, Bullock, Castro, Delaney, Steyer and Williamson with 0%; someone else with 2%
  13. ^ Klobuchar with 1%; Booker, Gabbard and O'Rourke with 0%; others with 0%
  14. ^ O'Rourke with 3%; Booker, Castro, Gabbard and Klobuchar with 1%; Steyer with 0%
  15. ^ O'Rourke with 4%; Castro, Klobuchar and Williamson with 1%; someone else with 1%
  16. ^ Booker, Castro, Delaney, and O'Rourke with 2%; Gabbard, Gillibrand, and Hickenlooper with 1%; Inslee and Klobuchar with 0%
  17. ^ Total of candidates officially reported, of 613,355 ballots cast.
  18. ^ Percentages reported by the Arizona Secretary of State do not add up to 100. This may be due to the fact that candidates who formally withdrew (Bennet, Bloomberg, Booker, Delaney, Klobuchar, and Steyer[10]) do not have their vote totals officially reported.[8]

References

  1. ^ "Early voting starts in Arizona Democratic presidential primary". KTAR. February 18, 2020.
  2. ^ "Elections Calendar & Upcoming Events". Arizona Secretary of State. Retrieved March 1, 2020.
  3. ^ "Arizona Election Results: Live Presidential Primary 2020". New York Times. Retrieved March 17, 2020.
  4. ^ Putnam, Josh. "The 2020 Presidential Primary Calendar". Frontloading HQ. Retrieved June 23, 2019.
  5. ^ https://www.recorder.pima.gov/EarlyVotingSites
  6. ^ https://recorder.maricopa.gov/pdf/PPE2020EVSites.pdf
  7. ^ a b "Arizona Democratic Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. May 5, 2019. Retrieved June 23, 2019.
  8. ^ a b "Arizona Election Results". results.arizona.vote. Arizona Secretary of State. Retrieved March 20, 2020.
  9. ^ "Delegate Tracker". interactives.ap.org. Associated Press. Retrieved March 20, 2020.
  10. ^ "Running for Federal Office, Arizona Secretary of State". azsos.gov. Arizona Secretary of State. Retrieved March 20, 2020.

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